基于對各種建筑的深入建模，企業(yè)應(yīng)將光伏發(fā)電和儲能部署的真正價值放在防止電力中斷損失的基礎(chǔ)上，從而實現(xiàn)太陽能+儲能系統(tǒng)的成本效益設(shè)計。在某些情況下，將恢復(fù)力(resilience)視為一種價值，甚至可以使太陽能+儲能項目在技術(shù)不可行的情況下變得可行。

對組織來說，對電力中斷造成的損失進(jìn)行評估是一個挑戰(zhàn)。對于電源中斷的恢復(fù)力沒有明確的市場價值，而數(shù)據(jù)中心或銀行部門可能能夠?qū)㈩A(yù)期的損失估算出來，但這對大多數(shù)組織來說是極其困難的。在緊急情況下，一些機(jī)構(gòu)提供服務(wù)的設(shè)施尤其如此，如醫(yī)院、急救人員和收容所。因此，避免這些損失（即電源恢復(fù)力價值）的經(jīng)濟(jì)價值一般在組織作出投資決定時很少考慮。其結(jié)果是，人們認(rèn)為部署光伏發(fā)電和電池儲能項目可能成本過高，盡管災(zāi)難和斷電會給組織帶來慘重的損失。

美國能源部國家可再生能源實驗室（NREL）和清潔能源集團(tuán)（CEG）新發(fā)表的論文“重視太陽能和儲能系統(tǒng)設(shè)計的重要性”介紹了加利福尼亞州阿納海姆的三種方案：學(xué)校，辦公樓和酒店。對于每一種客戶類型探討了兩種情況：一種是假設(shè)恢復(fù)力沒有任何價值，一種通過每小時中斷的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失來評估恢復(fù)力。這些恢復(fù)力的價值是以勞倫斯伯克利國家實驗室研究人員先前研究的客戶調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)的。

通過這種方法量化典型停電持續(xù)時間內(nèi)不同客戶的停電損失成本，這個報告闡述了在這些技術(shù)采用決策中的恢復(fù)力對于經(jīng)濟(jì)損失的影響。并在每種情況下進(jìn)行分析，而當(dāng)部署更大規(guī)模的光伏和電池儲能系統(tǒng)被認(rèn)為是經(jīng)濟(jì)可行的時候，其恢復(fù)力的價值值得考慮。

在確定太陽能+儲能系統(tǒng)的恢復(fù)力時需要考慮的因素：

•目前的電力成本

•建立負(fù)載配置文件

•平均中斷時間

•平均中斷成本

•每月中斷發(fā)生的時間

•每年中斷發(fā)生的時間

•臨界負(fù)載

•電池的其他用途

這個結(jié)果對于儲能來說令人關(guān)注目，從而為部署在辦公室和酒店的電池系統(tǒng)帶來了積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，如果不考慮其所避免電力中斷的價值，那么其部署將是沒有意義的。這將讓組織節(jié)省了更多的成本，因為在酒店部署這個系統(tǒng)所避免損失的價值是其凈收益的兩倍以上，在太陽能發(fā)電+儲能系統(tǒng)的整個生命周期將增加了17.8萬美元的價值。對于學(xué)校來說，增加電力中斷的防護(hù)能力的結(jié)果是建立一個電池儲能系統(tǒng)，如果考慮到恢復(fù)力的價值，那么部署的電池系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益將是沒有考慮建議的13倍，并且組織將節(jié)省一半的凈成本。

最近頻發(fā)的重大天氣事件導(dǎo)致隨之而來的大范圍電力中斷，這一分析報告對于部署這個系統(tǒng)的意義來說尤為及時。這些極端事件（如波多黎各的瑪麗亞颶風(fēng)）已經(jīng)提高了人們對彈性電源解決方案的需求和認(rèn)識，因為許多柴油發(fā)電機(jī)由于設(shè)備故障和燃料短缺原因，只能提供時間有限的支持。

評估恢復(fù)力加大了光伏系統(tǒng)部署規(guī)模，將提高大型辦公室的經(jīng)濟(jì)性

清潔能源集團(tuán)（CEG）副總裁兼項目總監(jiān)Seth Mullendore表示：“正如報告的研究結(jié)果所表明的那樣，部署太陽能發(fā)電+電池儲能項目防止電力中斷可以為許多類型的客戶帶來顯著的價值。 現(xiàn)在通過提高恢復(fù)力，將促進(jìn)下一次電力中斷之前部署更多的太陽能發(fā)電+電池儲能項目。這對于企業(yè)來說很重要，而對于像病人和老年人這樣的脆弱人群的人身安全來說，更重要的是獲得電力，因為這可能意味著生與死之間的差別。

即使過去幾年太陽能發(fā)電+電池儲能項目的成本快速下滑，其部署仍然會受到優(yōu)惠的電價結(jié)構(gòu)或無障礙市場機(jī)會的地區(qū)的限制。由于組織沒有將避免電力中斷的損失的價值納入項目決策中，所以恢復(fù)力目前不是部署這種發(fā)電儲能系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動因素。

“電池系統(tǒng)安裝可以采取多種形式，其空間要求從冰箱大小到兆瓦級規(guī)模系統(tǒng)的集裝箱，旨在滿足大型企業(yè)或工業(yè)客戶的關(guān)鍵電力需求。”Mullendore說，“需要牢記的是，彈性系統(tǒng)能夠在電網(wǎng)中斷期間提供可靠的電力，能夠為組織提供更多價值，但也需要額外的組件，并加大了設(shè)計的復(fù)雜性，這將增加任何安裝的前期成本。”

在大多數(shù)情況下，組織需要關(guān)注恢復(fù)力對于增加光伏+電池儲能系統(tǒng)的規(guī)模和可行性。通過對與電力中斷有關(guān)的損失進(jìn)行評估，太陽能發(fā)電+電池儲能系統(tǒng)在更多地點的部署具有經(jīng)濟(jì)意義，并確保人們?yōu)閼?yīng)對下一場災(zāi)難做好充分的準(zhǔn)備。

（中國儲能網(wǎng)獨家編譯，轉(zhuǎn)載請注明來源）

Putting a Value on the Resilience of Energy Storage Systems

January 31, 2018 by Emily Holbrook

Findings presented in a new paper by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Clean Energy Group (CEG) show that more integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage projects could make economic sense if the value of avoiding power outages is taken into account in project economics.

Based on in-depth modeling of various building types, putting a real value on the ability of PV and storage to prevent losses during outages results in the cost-effective design of larger solar+storage systems. In some cases, putting a value on resilience can even make solar+storage projects feasible where the technologies would not be economically viable otherwise.

It is often a challenge for building owners to put a value on expected losses from power outages. There is no clear market value for energy resilience, and, while a data center or bank may be able to put a dollar value on anticipated losses due to outages, it is extremely difficult for most organizations to place a monetizable value on resilience-related investments. This is particularly true for facilities providing services that a community depends on in an emergency situation, like hospitals, first responders, and shelters. As a result, the economic value of avoiding these losses (that is, the value of energy resilience) is generally not factored in when owners are making investment decisions. As a result, PV and battery storage may be deemed too expensive, even though disasters and power outages result in billions of dollars of losses to the economy.

CEG and NREL’s new paper, Valuing Resilience on Solar and Storage System Design, looks at three building scenarios in Anaheim, California: a school, an office building, and a hotel. For each of these customer types, two scenarios were explored – one placing no value on resilience and one valuing resilience in terms of dollars lost per hour of outage. These resilience values are based on customer survey data from a previous study by researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

By applying this methodology to quantify the cost of outage-related losses for different customers over typical outage durations reported by the utility serving Anaheim, Southern California Edison, this paper illustrates the impact that placing value on resilience has on these types of technology adoption decisions. In each case analyzed, larger PV and battery storage systems are found to be economical when the value of resilience is accounted for.

Considerations when sizing a solar+storage system for resiliency:

?Current electricity costs

?Building load profile

?Average duration of outages

?Average cost of outages

?Times of day when outages occur

?Times of year when outages occur

?Critical loads

?Other uses for battery

The results are particularly striking for storage, resulting in positive economics for battery systems in the office and hotel that would not make sense without including the value of avoided outages. This also increases the total lifetime savings realized by the building owner. Incorporating the value of avoided losses for the hotel results in more than a doubling of net benefits, an increase of $178,000 over the lifetime of the system. For the school, adding in the value of resilience results in a battery system that is thirteen times larger than what would be recommended if resilience were assigned no value, again doubling net savings for the building owner.

This analysis is particularly timely in light of recent major weather events and the widespread power outages that followed. These extreme events, such as Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, have raised awareness of the need for better resilient power solutions, as many diesel generators were found to provide limited support due to equipment failures and fuel shortages.

Valuing Resilience Increases the Optimal PV System Size and Makes the Addition of Storage Economical on a Large Office

“As the findings in this paper suggest, avoiding outages with resilient solar+storage can deliver significant value to many types of customers,” said Seth Mullendore, coauthor of the paper and vice president and project director at CEG. “By placing a value on resilience now, more solar+storage could be deployed before the next big storm hits. This is important for businesses, but even more essential to the safety of our most vulnerable populations, like the sick and the elderly, where access to power could literally mean the difference between life and death.”

Even with the rapid decline in PV and battery storage prices over the last few years, solar+storage installations have remained largely limited to areas with favorable utility rate tariff structures or accessible market opportunities. Because there is no accepted method for incorporating the value of avoided power outage losses into project decisions, the resilience is currently not an economic driver of such systems.

“Battery system installations can take many forms, with space requirements ranging from about the footprint of a dormitory fridge for a small-business to a shipping container for a megawatt-hour scale system designed to meet the critical power needs of a large business or industrial customer,” said Mullendore. “It’s important to keep in mind that resilient systems, those able to island and deliver reliable power during a grid outage, can provide more value to business, but also require additional components and added design complexities, which will increase the upfront cost of any installation.”

The analysis detailed in this paper demonstrates that, in most cases, valuing resilience will increase the size, and viability, of both PV and battery storage. By placing a value on outage-related losses, solar+ storage could make economic sense in many more locations today, ensuring more communities are better prepared for the next disaster.